Millions of Americans are heading to the polls Tuesday as a chaotic presidential campaign reaches its peak in a deeply divided United States, where voters in only a handful of battleground states will choose the country’s path forward.
Vice-President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump have presented starkly different visions for America’s future, but polling shows the two remain in a dead heat.
“Any election in the U.S. is important and impactful for us,” said Kirsten Hillman, Canada’s ambassador to the United States. “They are central to our economic prosperity. They are a vital security partner.”
Hillman has been travelling across America meeting with key members of the Republican and Democrat teams to prepare for any outcome. On election night, after her embassy duties are finished, she’ll be watching the results with her husband and friends — and said she’s leaning toward ordering pizza.
While the gathering with loved ones may bring solace amid the anxious anticipation, Hillman knows more than anyone the immense stakes at play for Canada.
“Whoever is sitting in the Oval Office and populating Congress is making decisions that may affect Canada, either decisions that provide us with opportunities or decisions that pose challenges for us,” Hillman said. “The job is to be ready for both.”
A shared history and 8,891-kilometre border will not shield Canada from the election’s outcome. Both candidates have proposed protectionist policies, but experts warn if the Republican leader prevails the relationship between the neighbours could be much more difficult.
“Trump and some of the key people around him, including (former trade representative) Robert Lighthizer, really want to stick it to Canada,” said Fen Hampson, a professor of international affairs at Carleton University in Ottawa.
Trump’s first administration demonstrated how vulnerable Canada is to America’s whims when the former president scrapped the North American Free Trade Agreement.
Negotiating its successor, the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement, was a key test for Ottawa after Trump’s victory. Whoever takes over the White House this time will be in charge during the agreement’s review in 2026.
A cause for concern in Canada and around the world is Trump’s proposed 10 per cent across-the-board tariff. A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report suggests those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.
American economists warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation, and possibly a recession, which would almost certainly have ripple effects in Canada. More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S and trade comprises 60 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product.