A historic Liberal victory in Monday’s New Brunswick election may not be the boost Justin Trudeau needs, according to local experts, who believe the provincial race was a referendum on the outgoing premier and not the embattled prime minister.
Susan Holt’s Liberals beat out Blaine Higgs’ incumbent Progressive Conservatives in Monday’s election, denying the latter his seat in the legislature and a third term running New Brunswick.
The victory means Holt will be the province’s first female premier, and marks a win for the Liberal brand at a time when most provinces have Conservative leaders and the federal party under Trudeau appears to be in trouble.
Donald Wright, a professor of political science at the University of New Brunswick, said the result could be welcome but comes in an election fought on entirely different issues.
“It may be a moment of brief joy for the Liberal Party of Canada, but the bottom line is that dynamic has its own logic — it’s unfolding according to its own timeframe,” he said in an interview with Media hours before polls closed.“I don’t think the results in New Brunswick — whatever they are — will affect, one way or the other, the Liberal Party of Canada and its prospects.”
The 33-day campaign was considered a tight race, as Higgs sought a third term from the people of New Brunswick.
The campaign focused closely on the cost of living, health care and housing. The Progressive Conservatives pitched a short platform built around a reduction in the sales tax as a solution to the affordability crunch. The Liberals and Greens moved weightier policy documents with policies they claimed would fix health care and housing.
The PC campaign also tried, as other similar campaigns have across Canada, to link the local provincial Liberals to the carbon tax and federal party. That tactic, Wright said, was made more complicated by Higgs’ two terms and own issues with popularity.“Blaine Higgs wants you to think this is all about Justin Trudeau, that this election is all about Justin Trudeau, the carbon price,” Wright said.
In the build up to the election, several senior Progressive Conservative cabinet ministers said they wouldn’t run again, with some suggesting Higgs himself was part of the issue.
In April, then-environment minister Gary Crossman stepped down, saying his “personal and political beliefs no longer align” with how the party was being run. The post-secondary education minister quit earlier in the year and the natural resources minister said he wouldn’t run again.