Over a span of 20 years, the number of adults living with a major illness in Ontario is expected to nearly double, a new report from the University of Toronto warns.
The study by the university’s Dalla Lana School of Public Health, published in collaboration with the Ontario Hospital Association, finds that millions more Ontarians will be living with chronic illness by 2040.
The study projects that 3.1 million adults will be living with major illness in Ontario in 2040, up from 1.8 million in 2020.
The study’s authors also project that approximately one in four adults over the age of 30 will live with a major illness in 2040, requiring significant hospital care, up from approximately one in eight individuals in 2002.
“As we look to the future, it’s clear that Ontario’s reached a turning point,” said Anthony Dale, president and CEO of the Ontario Hospital Association. “Ontario’s health system is already grappling with rapid population growth, increasingly complex health needs and intense pressures on existing capacity. These findings confirm that maintaining the status quo is not an option. Health care in Ontario needs an innovation revolution. Without it, the system won’t be able to cope.”
In addition to more people living with major illnesses, researchers predict that the number of illnesses any individual will be living with will also increase significantly.
They say that conditions expected to increase the most in number are those that increase with age, including osteoarthritis, diabetes and cancer.
Researchers say that having multiple chronic conditions is a major driver of demand for health services and is costly for hospitals.